Single-lever policy simulation · immigration

Student visa grants

400k/yr550k/yr10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising student visa grants from 400k/yr to 550k/yr — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the economy, the public finances, housing and the workforce, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Eases GDP strength, Fiscal pressure and Working-age population, but worsens Rent pressure, Public satisfaction and Political risk.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

GDP strength

moderate improvement

Why: International students bring tuition fees (avg £20–25k) and local spending, boosting GDP

Rent pressure

moderate pressure

Why: Student populations add concentrated demand for housing in university cities

Working-age population

moderate improvement

Why: Students who stay after graduating add to the working-age population

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

Fiscal pressuremoderate
Tax receiptsmild
Public satisfactionslight
Political riskslight
Social cohesionslight
Model output — exact figures
GDP strength4558 (+13)
Fiscal pressure6149 (-12)
Rent pressure7281 (+9)
Working-age population5057 (+7)
Tax receipts5055 (+5)
Public satisfaction3836 (-2)
Political risk6061 (+1)
Social cohesion4847 (-1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

Student visa grants: 400k/yr → 550k/yr · Britain 2036