Single-lever policy simulation · public services
Social care minimum pay
This report models the effect of raising social care pay from £12.71/hr to £15.00/hr — with every other government policy left unchanged — on social care, projected over 10 years.
Improves Social care staffing and Hospital waits, with little downside in the model.
A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →
Direct effects
▼Social care staffing
mild improvementWhy: Care worker pay lagging the living wage is the central driver of the 150k+ vacancy crisis — each 1pp rise improves retention measurably
Knock-on effects
Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.
Model output — exact figures
Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.