Single-lever policy simulation · public services

Social care funding (annual)

£27bn£39bn10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising social care funding from £27bn to £39bn — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the public finances and social care, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Eases Social care staffing and Hospital waits, but worsens Fiscal pressure, GDP strength and NHS staffing.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

Social care staffing

moderate improvement

Why: Better funding addresses chronic vacancy crisis in care homes and home care

Effect emerges within months

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

Fiscal pressuremoderate
GDP strengthslight
Hospital waitsslight
NHS staffingslight
Rent pressureslight
House pricesslight
Housing supply gapslight
Political riskslight
Model output — exact figures
Fiscal pressure6169 (+8)
Social care staffing7063 (-7)
GDP strength4543 (-2)
Hospital waits6866 (-2)
NHS staffing7374 (+1)
Rent pressure7273 (+1)
House prices6566 (+1)
Housing supply gap7576 (+1)
Political risk6061 (+1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

Social care funding (annual): £27bn → £39bn · Britain 2036