Single-lever policy simulation · border

Removal enforcement intensity

~9,382 returns/yr (current)→~18,764 returns/yr (+100%)10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising removals enforcement from ~9,382 returns/yr (current) to ~18,764 returns/yr (+100%) — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the public finances, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Worsens Fiscal pressure, GDP strength and NHS staffing, with little upside in the model.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

▲Fiscal pressure

mild pressure

Why: Enforcement operations are expensive per case — intensity scales costs faster than revenue recovery

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

▼GDP strengthslight

▲NHS staffingslight

▲Social care staffingslight

▲House pricesslight

▲Political riskslight

Model output — exact figures

Fiscal pressure61 → 66 (+5)

GDP strength45 → 44 (-1)

NHS staffing73 → 74 (+1)

Social care staffing70 → 71 (+1)

House prices65 → 66 (+1)

Political risk60 → 61 (+1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

See the full report for this change →Open the full simulator