Single-lever policy simulation · public services

NHS training places (annual intake)

73k/yr97k/yr10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising NHS training places from 73k/yr to 97k/yr — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the NHS, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Eases NHS staffing, Hospital waits and Working-age population, but worsens Fiscal pressure.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

NHS staffing

moderate improvement

Why: Domestic training is the long-term fix for staffing — doctors take 7–10 years, nurses 3–4. Investment now eases pressure from the late 2020s onward

Takes 5+ years to fully materialize

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

Hospital waitsmild
Fiscal pressureslight
Working-age populationslight
Model output — exact figures
NHS staffing7361 (-12)
Hospital waits6863 (-5)
Fiscal pressure6162 (+1)
Working-age population5051 (+1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

NHS training places (annual intake): 73k/yr → 97k/yr · Britain 2036