Single-lever policy simulation · public services

NHS budget (annual)

£192bn£240bn10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising the NHS budget from £192bn to £240bn — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the public finances, the economy, social care, housing and public opinion, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Eases Hospital waits, but worsens Fiscal pressure, GDP strength and Social care staffing.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

NHS staffing

negligible net effect

Why: More funding enables recruitment, better pay, and retention of NHS staff

Effect develops over 1–2 years

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

Fiscal pressurevery strong
GDP strengthmild
Social care staffingmild
House pricesmild
Political riskmild
Rent pressuremild
Housing supply gapslight
Hospital waitsslight
Model output — exact figures
Fiscal pressure6194 (+33)
GDP strength4539 (-6)
Social care staffing7074 (+4)
House prices6569 (+4)
Political risk6064 (+4)
Rent pressure7275 (+3)
Housing supply gap7577 (+2)
Hospital waits6867 (-1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

NHS budget (annual): £192bn → £240bn · Britain 2036