Single-lever policy simulation · immigration
Net migration target
This report models the effect of reducing net migration from 250k/yr to 100k/yr — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the workforce, housing, the public finances, the economy and the NHS, projected over 10 years.
Eases Rent pressure, House prices and Housing supply gap, but worsens Working-age population, Tax receipts and Fiscal pressure.
A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →
Direct effects
▼Working-age population
very strong pressureWhy: More working-age migrants expand the labour force, increasing the productive population base
▼Rent pressure
very strong improvementWhy: Additional households compete for the same housing stock, pushing rents upward
▼House prices
very strong improvementWhy: Population growth adds sustained demand pressure to the housing market
▲Dependency ratio
strong pressureWhy: Working-age migrants improve the ratio of workers to dependants, easing pension and care costs
▼Housing supply gap
strong improvementWhy: More people means the gap between housing need and available supply widens
▼Hospital waits
strong improvementWhy: Growing population increases hospital demand, stretching existing capacity further
▼GP access
strong improvementWhy: More residents register with GPs, increasing demand without matching new capacity
Knock-on effects
Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.
Model output — exact figures
Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.