Single-lever policy simulation · public services

Local authority support

£5.0bn/yr (current)→£10.0bn/yr (+100%)10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising local authority funding from £5.0bn/yr (current) to £10.0bn/yr (+100%) — with every other government policy left unchanged — on community cohesion and the public finances, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Eases Social cohesion and Political risk, but worsens Fiscal pressure, GDP strength and NHS staffing.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

▲Social cohesion

mild improvement

Why: Local authorities bear the frontline cost of migration (housing, school places, ESOL) — adequate funding is the difference between managed integration and community strain

⏱ Effect develops over 1–2 years

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

▲Fiscal pressuremild

▼GDP strengthslight

▲NHS staffingslight

▲Social care staffingslight

▼Political riskslight

Model output — exact figures

Social cohesion48 → 53 (+5)

Fiscal pressure61 → 64 (+3)

GDP strength45 → 44 (-1)

NHS staffing73 → 74 (+1)

Social care staffing70 → 71 (+1)

Political risk60 → 59 (-1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

See the full report for this change →Open the full simulator