Single-lever policy simulation · public services

Integration & ESOL funding

£70m/yr→£135m/yr10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising integration & ESOL funding from £70m/yr to £135m/yr — with every other government policy left unchanged — on community cohesion, the public finances, public opinion and inequality, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Improves Social cohesion, Tax receipts and Political risk, with little downside in the model.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

▲Social cohesion

strong improvement

Why: English proficiency is the strongest predictor of successful integration outcomes

⏱ Effect develops over 1–2 years

▲Tax receipts

moderate improvement

Why: Better-integrated migrants achieve higher employment and earnings over time

⏱ Effect builds over 2–3 years

▼Inequality

mild improvement

Why: Integration & ESOL funding has no short causal path to inequality in the model. Any movement you see is the tail end of long chains through shared composites (fiscal pressure, public satisfaction, political risk) and will be small.

⏱ Takes 4+ years to fully materialize

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

▼Political riskmild

Model output — exact figures

Social cohesion48 → 67 (+19)

Tax receipts50 → 57 (+7)

Political risk60 → 55 (-5)

Inequality50 → 47 (-3)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

See the full report for this change →Open the full simulator