Single-lever policy simulation · housing

Infrastructure investment

£20bn/yr (current)→£30bn/yr (+50%)10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising infrastructure investment from £20bn/yr (current) to £30bn/yr (+50%) — with every other government policy left unchanged — on housing and the public finances, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Eases Housing supply gap, GDP strength and Rent pressure, but worsens Fiscal pressure, NHS staffing and Social care staffing.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

▼Housing supply gap

mild improvement

Why: New infrastructure unlocks housing pipelines (transport links, utilities) — the unseen enabler of build-out

⏱ Effect builds over 3–4 years

▲GDP strength

slight improvement

Why: Infrastructure investment has durable GDP multipliers — transport, energy, and digital spend compound over decades

⏱ Effect builds over 3–4 years

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

▲Fiscal pressuremild

▲NHS staffingslight

▲Social care staffingslight

▼Rent pressureslight

▼House pricesslight

▲Political riskslight

Model output — exact figures

Housing supply gap75 → 71 (-4)

Fiscal pressure61 → 64 (+3)

GDP strength45 → 47 (+2)

NHS staffing73 → 74 (+1)

Social care staffing70 → 71 (+1)

Rent pressure72 → 71 (-1)

House prices65 → 64 (-1)

Political risk60 → 61 (+1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

See the full report for this change →Open the full simulator