Single-lever policy simulation · border
Illegal labour enforcement
This report models the effect of raising illegal-working enforcement from Current tempo to +100% vs current — with every other government policy left unchanged — on community cohesion and jobs, projected over 10 years.
Eases Social cohesion and Political risk, but worsens Vacancy fill rate, GDP strength and Fiscal pressure.
A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →
Direct effects
▲Social cohesion
mild improvementWhy: Enforcement reduces exploitation of undocumented workers — a community-protective effect when done proportionately
▼Vacancy fill rate
mild pressureWhy: Cracking down on informal labour pushes sectors (hospitality, agriculture, construction) to legal hiring — tightens the legitimate labour market in the short term
Knock-on effects
Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.
Model output — exact figures
Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.