Single-lever policy simulation · housing

Housebuilding target

300k/yr→450k/yr10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising the housebuilding target from 300k/yr to 450k/yr — with every other government policy left unchanged — on housing, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Improves Housing supply gap, Rent pressure and House prices, with little downside in the model.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

▼Housing supply gap

very strong improvement

Why: Building more homes directly closes the gap between supply and demand. 2–5 year construction lag.

⏱ Effect builds over 3–4 years

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

▼Rent pressurestrong

▼House pricesstrong

▲Public satisfactionslight

▲Social cohesionslight

Model output — exact figures

Housing supply gap75 → 31 (-44)

Rent pressure72 → 55 (-17)

House prices65 → 48 (-17)

Public satisfaction38 → 39 (+1)

Social cohesion48 → 49 (+1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

See the full report for this change →Open the full simulator