Single-lever policy simulation · immigration

Health & care visa allocation

13%→32%10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising the health & care visa share from 13% to 32% — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the NHS, social care, the workforce and public opinion, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Improves NHS staffing, Social care staffing and Hospital waits, with little downside in the model.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

▼NHS staffing

very strong improvement

Why: Overseas-recruited doctors and nurses fill NHS vacancies faster than domestic training — each 1pp shift feeds the staffing pipeline within months

⏱ Effect emerges within months

▼Social care staffing

very strong improvement

Why: Care-worker visas backfill the chronic vacancy crisis in residential and home care — the sector most dependent on non-UK labour

⏱ Effect emerges within months

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

▼Hospital waitsvery strong

▲Working-age populationmoderate

▲Public satisfactionmild

▲Tax receiptsslight

▲GDP strengthslight

▼Fiscal pressureslight

Model output — exact figures

NHS staffing73 → 0 (-73)

Social care staffing70 → 0 (-70)

Hospital waits68 → 7 (-61)

Working-age population50 → 58 (+8)

Public satisfaction38 → 43 (+5)

Tax receipts50 → 52 (+2)

GDP strength45 → 46 (+1)

Fiscal pressure61 → 60 (-1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

See the full report for this change →Open the full simulator