Single-lever policy simulation · public services
GP / primary care investment
This report models the effect of raising GP and primary-care investment from £15.0bn/yr (current) to £22.5bn/yr (+50%) — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the NHS and the public finances, projected over 10 years.
Eases GP access and Hospital waits, but worsens Fiscal pressure, GDP strength and NHS staffing.
A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →
Direct effects
▼GP access
moderate improvementWhy: GP access is the front door to the NHS — investment scales appointment capacity directly, though with a 1–2y staff recruitment lag
Knock-on effects
Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.
Model output — exact figures
Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.