Single-lever policy simulation · immigration
Family visa grants
This report models the effect of raising family visa grants from 76k/yr to 113k/yr — with every other government policy left unchanged — on community cohesion and the public finances, projected over 10 years.
Eases Social cohesion and Political risk, but worsens Fiscal pressure, GDP strength and NHS staffing.
A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →
Direct effects
▲Social cohesion
moderate improvementWhy: Family reunification is a rights-based signal — restrictive policy reads as harsh to diaspora communities; generous policy reassures on integration
▲Fiscal pressure
moderate pressureWhy: Family visa holders have higher benefit and service draw than work visa holders — net fiscal contribution is typically negative in early years
Knock-on effects
Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.
Model output — exact figures
Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.