Single-lever policy simulation · international
Defence spending (% GDP)
This report models the effect of raising defence spending from 2.50% to 3.75% — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the public finances, the NHS, Britain's standing abroad, housing and public opinion, projected over 10 years.
Eases International standing and Public satisfaction, but worsens Fiscal pressure, NHS staffing and Housing supply gap.
A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →
Direct effects
▲Fiscal pressure
strong pressureWhy: Each 0.25pp of GDP is roughly £7bn/year — defence spending is a top-5 budget pressure driver and scales linearly with this lever
▲NHS staffing
moderate pressureWhy: Defence labour competition and budget envelope pressure both cascade into NHS recruitment — indirect but real
▲International standing
moderate improvementWhy: NATO 2% floor is the political baseline; 2.5%+ signals serious commitment. UK positioning here shapes transatlantic and European security credibility
▲Housing supply gap
mild pressureWhy: Construction labour pulled into defence infrastructure projects (bases, shipyards) reduces residential capacity in the short term
▲GDP strength
negligible net effectWhy: Defence spending has modest industrial-base multiplier effects through BAE, Babcock, and the supply chain — positive but small GDP signal at the margin
Knock-on effects
Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.
Model output — exact figures
Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.