Single-lever policy simulation · border

Border enforcement budget

~£500m/yr (current)→~£1000m/yr (+100%)10-year projection

This report models the effect of raising the border-enforcement budget from ~£500m/yr (current) to ~£1000m/yr (+100%) — with every other government policy left unchanged — on community cohesion, projected over 10 years.

Bottom line

Improves Social cohesion and Political risk, with little downside in the model.

A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →

Direct effects

▲Social cohesion

mild improvement

Why: Visible enforcement improves public confidence in immigration management

⚑ contested assumption

Knock-on effects

Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.

▼Political riskslight

Model output — exact figures

Social cohesion48 → 54 (+6)

Political risk60 → 59 (-1)

Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.

See the full report for this change →Open the full simulator