Single-lever policy simulation · immigration
Asylum caseworker capacity
This report models the effect of raising asylum caseworker capacity from 2,100 to 4,000 — with every other government policy left unchanged — on the public finances, public opinion, the economy, the NHS and social care, projected over 10 years.
Improves Fiscal pressure, Public satisfaction and Political risk, with little downside in the model.
A single lever moved in isolation — which no real government does. Figures are modelled projections, not predictions. How the model works →
Direct effects
▼Fiscal pressure
very strong improvementWhy: Faster decisions clear the asylum support backlog — every month in hotel accommodation costs hundreds of millions. Highest-leverage lever on asylum spending
▲Public satisfaction
strong improvementWhy: Backlogs are the single most visible failure of the immigration system — faster processing directly improves perceived control
Knock-on effects
Reached indirectly, as the direct effects propagate through the system. Ordering reflects how the effect spreads, not a literal sequence in time.
Model output — exact figures
Index points on a 0–100 scale. Lower is better for pressure metrics; higher is better for outcomes like GDP and satisfaction.